[1]張認認  閆怡飛  王鵬  閆行  閆相禎.基于貝葉斯網絡的頁巖氣井套管變形失效定量風險分析[J].石油鉆采工藝,2018,40(6):736-742.[doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.012]
 ZHANG Renren,YAN Yifei,et al.Quantitative risk analysis on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells based on Bayes network[J].Oil Drilling & Production Technology,2018,40(6):736-742.[doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.012]
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基于貝葉斯網絡的頁巖氣井套管變形失效定量風險分析
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《石油鉆采工藝》[ISSN:1000-7393/CN:13-1072/TE]

卷:
40卷
期數:
2018年6期
頁碼:
736-742
欄目:
鉆井完井
出版日期:
2018-11-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantitative risk analysis on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells based on Bayes network
文章編號:
1000 – 7393( 2018 )06 – 0736– 07
作者:
張認認12  閆怡飛12  王鵬3  閆行2  閆相禎2
1. 中國石油大學(華東)機電工程學院; 2. 中國石油大學(華東)油氣CAE 技術研究中心; 3. 石油管材及裝備材料服役行為與結構安全國家重點實驗室
Author(s):
ZHANG Renren1 2 YAN Yifei1 2 WANG Peng3 YAN Xing2 YAN Xiangzhen2
1. School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China; 2. Oil and Gas CAE Technology Research Center, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Performance and Structural Safety for Petroleum Pipe and Equipment Materials, Xi’an 710077, Shaanxi, China
關鍵詞:
頁巖氣井套管變形失效貝葉斯網絡誘因風險評估
Keywords:
shale gas well casing deformation failure Bayes network cause risk assessment
分類號:
TE931.2
DOI:
10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.012
文獻標志碼:
A
摘要:
受環境載荷和自身缺陷的影響,頁巖氣井套管在服役過程中可能發生變形失效,對頁巖氣井的正常生產造成嚴重影響。為控制頁巖氣井套管變形失效風險,采用事故樹和事件序列圖方法識別頁巖氣井套管變形失效原因和后果,建立頁巖氣井套管變形失效場景模型,將事故樹和事件序列模型轉化為貝葉斯網絡,采用條件概率表考慮事件之間的推理關系,建立頁巖氣井套管變形失效的貝葉斯網絡模型。進行失效診斷分析和概率學習,識別頁巖氣井套管變形失效最可能的致因因素,引入先兆事故,評估各失效場景的動態發生概率。以川東地區A 頁巖氣井為例開展模型應用研究,獲取導致套管變形失效最可能的致因組合,得到套管變形失效及其失效后果的動態發生概率,與工程現場氣井套管的安全狀況比較吻合,分析結果可為頁巖氣井套管變形失效風險防控和決策提供理論支撐。
Abstract:
Due to the effect of the environmental loads and the defects of its own, the casing in shale gas wells may suffer deformation failure in the process of service, which will bring serious impact on the normal production of shale gas wells. In order to control the risk induced by the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells, its causes and consequences were identified by means of event tree and event sequence diagram. Then, the scenario model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established, and event tree and event sequence models were transformed into the Bayes network. The inference relations between events were presented by using conditional probability table, and the Bayes network model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established. Failure diagnosis and analysis and probability learning were carried out, and the most possible cause for the deformation failure of the casing was identified. Threatened accident was introduced and the dynamic occurrence probability of each failure scenario was assessed. Finally, model application study was carried out with shale gas well A in the eastern Sichuan Basin as the example. And the most possible cause combination for the deformation failure of the casing was figured out, and the dynamic occurrence probability of casing deformation failure and its consequence was calculated. It is indicated that they are in better accordance with the safety situation of the casing in gas wells in the field of engineering. The research results can provide the theoretical support for the risk control and decision making on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells.

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