[1]宋藝 劉兆年 邱浩.基于不確定性模型的海上鉆井投資費用估算方法[J].石油鉆采工藝,2018,40(6):743-748.[doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.013]
 SONG Yi,LIU Zhaonian,QIU Hao.An estimation method based on uncertainty model for offshore drilling investment[J].Oil Drilling & Production Technology,2018,40(6):743-748.[doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.013]
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基于不確定性模型的海上鉆井投資費用估算方法
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《石油鉆采工藝》[ISSN:1000-7393/CN:13-1072/TE]

卷:
40卷
期數:
2018年6期
頁碼:
743-748
欄目:
鉆井完井
出版日期:
2018-11-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
An estimation method based on uncertainty model for offshore drilling investment
文章編號:
1000 – 7393( 2018 )06 – 0743 – 06
作者:
宋藝 劉兆年 邱浩
中海油研究總院有限責任公司
Author(s):
SONG Yi LIU Zhaonian QIU Hao
CNOOC Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 100028, China
關鍵詞:
海上油田鉆井投資蒙特卡洛概率模型決策風險
Keywords:
offshore oilfield drilling investment Monte Carlo probability model decision-making risk
分類號:
TE29
DOI:
10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.013
文獻標志碼:
A
摘要:
海上鉆井投資影響因素復雜,存在較大的不確定性。現有的估算方法都為確定性方法,一般只能反映出以往作業的平均水平,不能有效反映投資的風險和潛力,鉆井投資估算必然會產生一定的誤差,影響石油公司的投資決策。針對上述問題, 首先對影響鉆井投資最重要的因素——鉆井工期工序進行細化分析,并進行了科學分類,通過蒙特卡洛方法對鉆井工序進行概率分布擬合,得到鉆井工期估算決策模型,最后通過作業日費和材料費等投資估算方法,得到鉆井投資估算的概率決策模型,有效反映出鉆井投資的風險和潛力,為石油勘探開發提供更科學的投資依據,降低鉆完井投資的風險。
Abstract:
Offshore drilling investment is affected by complicated factors, and its uncertainty is greater. Existing estimation methods are all deterministic methods, which can only reflect the average level of previous operations, but cannot reflect the risk and potential of the investment effectively. Therefore, the drilling investment estimated by these deterministic methods will inevitably generate a certain error and impact the investment decisions of petroleum companies. In this paper, the most important factor influencing the drilling investment, i.e., the drilling period and procedure was finely analyzed and classified scientifically. After probability distribution fitting was conducted on the drilling procedure by means of Monte Carlo method, the decision-making model for drilling period estimation was established. Finally, the probability decision-making model for drilling investment estimation was developed by means of investment estimation methods, e.g. daily operation cost and material expense. And it can reflect the risk and potential of drilling investment effectively. The research results provide the scientific investment basis for oil exploration and development and play an important role in reducing the risk of drilling and completion investment.

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